"China's overpopulation had created severe economic problems within the country, and the balancing of this population was a key element in China's economic success. However, although its birth planning policies were both effective and economically beneficial to the country, it is likely that China could have brought its population into line without relying on the harsh measures of coerced sterilization and abortion..."
China's dramatic birth planning policies, while incredibly controversial in their curtailment of basic reproductive rights, stemmed from a direct, economic need to control the country's population. In the current international economic system, population is one of the strongest factors affecting a country's economy. It both determines the production potential of the country and draws on large amounts of government money for healthcare and education.
China's overpopulation had created severe economic problems within the country, and the balancing of this population was a key element in China's economic success. However, although its birth planning policies were both effective and economically beneficial to the country, it is likely that China could have brought its population into line without relying on the harsh measures of coerced sterilization and abortion.
The economic and demographic factors operating inside a country constantly and consistently affect each other. It is commonly accepted among modern economists that the demographic features of a population are at least partially dependent on the features of a country's economy. It is believed that underdeveloped and agriculturally intensive economies naturally lead to higher fertility rates, whereas highly developed and heavily industrialized or urbanized countries typically have lower fertility rates, as labor becomes less important to production in relation to capital.
Likewise, developing countries have uniformly higher mortality rates than fully developed ones, leading to a population check that has a much greater impact on the third world than the first. "Most industrialized countries underwent a fundamental shift from extremely high to low mortality and fertility rates...and many expect today's developing countries to experience the same sort of demographic transition" (Yuan Tien et all, 6). China is typically placed in the list of "developing" countries with rapidly falling fertility rates, and much of the headway it has made in reducing its population is often attributed to the economic incentives to modern Chinese of having fewer children (Maurer-Fazio, lecture, 10/21/03).
Population is not simply controlled by a country's economic development, however. Often the fertility rate of a population is also decided by other factors such as tradition, religion, or other personal beliefs, and the population level within a country greatly affects its economy in turn. Population is a valuable resource dictating how much a country is able to produce within a given period of time, but it also draws on the other resources of a country, requiring investments in education, healthcare, and government welfare or stipend programs. How far a country's population is over or under its ideal level is one of the major factors dictating how much economic growth that country has the potential for.
The three basic economic factors of production are land, labor and capital, and a country's population level determines how much labor is available. The higher the population, the more labor, which has led some leaders to believe that their countries' birth rates should rise as much as possible. "Mao's response was to condemn [concerns about China's overpopulation] as utterly groundless, and to insist that China's large population was a great asset" (White, 252). However, when the level of available labor significantly surpasses a country's other resources, the factors of production become unbalanced, leading to a labor surplus that causes problems like unemployment and insufficient healthcare and education.
This kind of labor surplus was behind China's "population problem", where labor far overbalanced both the country's land and available capital. "The growing population base, land degradation, and industrial expansion have caused a decline in the per capita supply of agricultural land...On a per capita basis, cultivated land has dropped to 1.8 mu in 1988 from 2.7 mu in 1949" (Yuan Tien et all, 35). The population levels have created a large labor surplus, causing high unemployment despite the government's subsidizing of state owned employers. "The lack of jobs continues to be serious...In 1982, the unemployment rate reached 8.3% in Beijing and 7.7% in Shanghai" (Yuan Tien et all, 30).
China also experienced great difficulty in supplying quality education to its large population, which is typical of a country where labor far outstrips other resources. "The low educational and skill levels of Chinese workers are a drag on China's aspirations to become a major player in the world economy...the constantly expanding school-age population are major impediments to achieving an educated work force" (Yuan Tien et all, 31). High quality healthcare is also extremely difficult to supply to such a vast population. "Further reductions in mortality...may be thwarted by demographic...factors" (Yuan Tien et all, 32).
These difficulties led people from the 1960's on to identify China's level of population as a problem, directly contradicting Mao Zedong's earlier view of Chinese fertility rates.
"Mao Zedong is blamed for opposing family planning and birth limitation until the population problem grew very severe"(White, 250). Accordingly, China adopted a series of state policies aimed at limiting population so that a better balance could be established between population and capital, and more human capital could be invested in each member of the Chinese labor force. "The PRC is now attempting both to continue to limit population quantity and to further improve population quality" (Winkler, 381).
China's SDI policies are very diverse, ranging from the non-invasive government propaganda and the free distribution of contraceptives in the 1970s to coerced abortions and sterilizations adopted in the 1990s (Winkler). The PRC has tried virtually everything to bring its population under control, often causing concern in the international community through its difficult methods. Many condemn China's later policies for being "inhumane" (Yuan Tie et all, 12), and some question whether China's attempt at birth control has worked at all, or whether China's "population problem" is as large as ever.
Although many aspects of China's SDI are controversial, it is undeniable that the programs were hugely effective in limiting China's population growth. "During the 1990's China achieved a below-replacement fertility rate...in 1992 China's total fertility rate has been about 1.8" (Winkler, 383). Having dropped from a national average fertility rate of over nearly 8 children-per-woman in 1965 (Smil, 20), the decline in fertility has transformed the country. However, as in any country, China's population will need constant supervision for as long as the country exists. Populations are not a set resource: they constantly change. As both China's fertility rate and its need for labor resources constantly adjust, it will have to carefully modify its birth planning policies, year by year. "The first two parts [of the 2001 law] assert the need to continue to limit population growth" (Winckler, 90). China has brought its population under control with unprecedented success and speed, but no country can ever completely or permanently solve its "population problems".
A less easily answered question is that of whether or not China's policy of forced birth control was necessary. Many economists argue that China's population declined naturally as its economy transformed into a more industrialized, urban-centered model in the later 1900s (Maurer-Fazio, lecture, 10/21/03). China's less-invasive 1970's policies were also greatly effective in limiting births, without the use of controversial procedures like forced abortions or sterilizations.
Statistics suggest that the 1970's policies were just as effective as the stricter SDI policies of the 1990s, if not more so. Although China's fertility rate only fell to below replacement levels in 1992, the greatest drop in fertility by far occurred in the period before1990, when the one-child-policy was created. "As a result, Chinese fertility decelerated, plummeting nearly 50 percent between 1970 and 1979...no further large drops have occurred, which suggests that the limit of population planning may have been reached given China's socioeconomic circumstances" (Yuan Tien et all, 7).
This dramatic change in population occurred long before China's stricter birth control measures were instated in the 1990s. Instead, "the approach to lower birth rates was embodied in the flexible wan, xi, shao campaign" (Yuan Tien et all, 8). Although the strictest SDI measures implemented in the 1990s reduced the birth rate further, "The Chinese birth rate had already fallen to its lowest recorded level by the time these stringent goals were adopted" (Yuan Tien et all, 10).
It is entirely possible that China could keep its birth rate at a comparable level without the forced abortion/ sterilization policies that severely cut the human rights of its citizens and caused it so much trouble internationally. It is also likely that, had China relied on measures like Government propaganda, the free distribution of contraceptives, and economic incentives for having only one child, these less inhumane policies could have covered most of the distance of reducing the population to its current level. These less aggressive tactics are China's primary method of population control today, and continue to be effective.
A total absence of government intervention, however, would leave Chinese parents with no pressures dictating how many children they should have except those of tradition, which has urged parents to have as many children as possible since before Confucius, who believed that "Many children means much happiness: early children means early happiness" (Common saying attributed to Confucius). Without the government to serve as a contrasting voice in society, China's birth rate would probably spike. Economic factors would not be enough to keep families small. In the 1960's before the government's SDI policies, China's fertility rate was at its highest (Smil, 20), even though the country had already industrialized and urbanized to the extent that very large families were often economic burdens, instead of assets. Even in the cities it was very common for parents to have six or more children (Smil and interviews with Nanjing residents), despite the fact small numbers of children are economically preferable in an industrialized urban environment. If the government were to take no stance on population control, as countries like the U.S. have done, China's population problem would undoubtedly rise to its previous levels again.
It is almost certain that even the non-invasive measures adopted in the 1970's will not keep China's fertility rate at its current low, but additional birth control measures can and have been adopted that still give people the freedom of reproductive choice that is so important in other regions of the world. China's bonuses of monetary and educational advantages for parents with only one child were very effective in limiting its birth rate, but were incentives instead of coercive measures. "Market-oriented post-Mao policymakers have often supplemented persuasion with economic incentives and disincentives" (Winckler, 395). China's present birth-planning policies rely heavily on such economic incentives, and future population control programs will be able to use them just as effectively.
Widespread free contraception is also a vital element for any future birth planning policies. The recent 2001 Birth-Planning Law is an excellent example of a policy that provides many comprehensive methods of birth control, but is far less threatening than previous policies. This Law "does not explicitly mention sterilization or abortion. Sterilization is implicitly included as a voluntary option under long-term contraceptive measures...includes IUDs and subdermal implants as alternatives...abortion is implicitly included as a last resort...after contraception has failed" (395). The 2001 Law represents what could be one stage in the gradual softening of China's birth control policies, which would give China a better reputation in international fields without the cost of much population increase. Eventually, it may be possible for China to create a birth-planning policy that will limit the population as much as is necessary for the Chinese economy without resorting to any coercive measures.
The future effectiveness of the 2001 law and the features on subsequent policies will decide once and for all whether China can effectively control its population without taking all reproductive power out of its people's hands. Currently, the country's new birth planning measures do not feature coerced abortions or sterilization, and if it is possible for China to permanently eliminate policy features such as coercive reproduction control, it will attempt to do so, both for the well-being of Chinese citizens and to avoid the harmful international controversy these policies have caused. However, if it proves impossible for China to control its population without such strict measures, it will likely reinstate them. No developing or developed country can afford to have severe overpopulation for long in the modern world economic system, and it is unlikely that China would have achieved such great economic success if it had been unable to bring its population problem into line.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The Economics of Chinese Birth Planning
Sources:
White, Tyrene. The Origins of China's Birth Planning Policy. Harvard University Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1994.
Smil, Vaclav, China's Environmental Crisis. M.E. Sharpe, Inc. Armonk, New York, 1993.
Tien, H. Yuan and Zhang Tianlu, Ping Yu, Li Jingneng, Liang Zhongtang. "China's Demographic Dilemmas." Population Bulletin, Vol. 47, No.1. Population Reference Bureau, Inc. Washington, D.C. June 1992.
Winckler, Edwin A. "Chinese Reproductive Policy at the Turn of the Century: Dynamic Stability." Population and Development Review, Vol. 28, No.3. The Population Council, Inc., New York, NY, 2002.
People's Republic of China Law on Population and Birth Planning. People's Republic of China, 2002.
|
Blog 
